Trade: Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $17K
- Total Volume
- $117K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $29K
Market outcomes
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | 13% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission since 2018, faces potential criminal prosecution and imprisonment before the end of 2026. The 73-year-old senior military official has not been formally charged or detained as of late 2024, though he remains a figure of interest within China's anti-corruption apparatus. The current order book on Polymarket prices a 13% probability of a prison sentence materialising within the settlement window, reflecting substantial uncertainty about whether formal charges will be filed and prosecuted within the compressed timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests caution in assessing such outcomes. Senior Chinese military figures have faced corruption investigations with extended timelines—the cases of Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, both former vice-chairmen of the CMC, involved multi-year investigation periods before formal charges and sentencing. Guo received a life sentence in 2016, roughly three years after his initial detention in 2013. Zhang's advanced age and the political sensitivity of prosecuting sitting or recently-retired CMC leadership complicate prediction; the Party may prefer administrative measures or quiet removal over public trial proceedings.
Traders should monitor announcements from China's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and official state media for any indication of formal investigation opening or charges being filed. The absence of public reporting on Zhang's status since mid-2024 suggests no imminent action, though Chinese authorities frequently conduct investigations without disclosure. The 13% probability reflects the low baseline likelihood of prosecution completion within roughly two years, balanced against the possibility of accelerated proceedings if political circumstances shift.
Wikipedia Context
-
Zhang YouxiaZhang Youxia is a Chinese general in the People's Liberation Army (PLA), who served as first-ranked vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) until January 2026. Born in Beijing, Zhang is the son of General Zhang Zongxun. Joining the army in 1968, Zhang fought in the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979, and the Battle of Laoshan in 1984, making him one
-
Zhang Yuxi
Zhang Yuxi , also known as Yci, is a Chinese actress. She is known for her roles as Lin Xingchen in the romance comedy drama My Little Princess (2016), Chu Linglong in Love and Redemption (2020), Zhu Jiu in South Wind Knows (2023), Qin Fei in A Beautiful Lie (2024) and Ye Meng in Deep Affection Eyes (2025).
-
Zhang Shuxian
Zhang Shuxian is a Chinese badminton player. She is a prominent Chinese women's doubles specialist who notably securing a bronze medal at the 2023 BWF World Championships and contributing to China's victories at the 2023 and 2025 Sudirman Cup as well at the 2024 Uber Cup. Beyond her success in team events, Zhang has consistently performed at the highest leve
-
Zhang YouyiZhang Youyi was a Chinese educator, banker, and the first wife of the Chinese poet Xu Zhimo. With assistance from her brother Chang Kia-ngau, who was the general manager of Bank of China, she ran her own bank, Shanghai Women's Savings Bank.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 13% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $769 if YES resolves true — a 669% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$117K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 13%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: