Election prediction markets — live odds for 2026 and beyond

Election prediction markets have a demonstrated record of outperforming traditional polling. In the 2016 US presidential election, prediction markets correctly assigned a higher probability to a Trump victory than any major polling aggregate — and again in 2020 and 2024, the final prediction market price was closer to the certified result than the RealClearPolitics average. The mechanism is straightforward: prediction markets ask people to risk real money on what they believe will happen, not what they hope or intend. Traders who are consistently wrong go broke; traders who are consistently right accumulate capital and move the price further toward the truth.

PolyGram lists election prediction markets across dozens of races and jurisdictions. In the United States, coverage includes the 2028 presidential race (party nominations, general election, individual state outcomes), 2026 midterm elections (Senate seats, House control, gubernatorial races), and special elections as they arise. Each state-level market resolves to the certified result from the relevant Secretary of State or election commission. Prediction markets for primaries resolve to the official delegate count or party nomination.

International election coverage on PolyGram is comprehensive. European elections include UK general elections and by-elections, German Bundestag races, French presidential and legislative elections, Italian general elections, Spanish elections, Dutch general elections, and European Parliament elections. Markets for EU leadership positions — European Commission President, European Council President — track appointment processes that traditional polling cannot measure at all. Latin American coverage includes Brazilian presidential and congressional elections, Mexican presidential races, Argentine elections, and Colombian elections. Asian coverage includes Indian general elections, Japanese Diet elections, South Korean presidential races, and Philippine elections.

Beyond head-to-head election outcomes, PolyGram lists structural political markets that provide context for election traders. These include party control markets (which party controls the Senate/House after November), margin-of-victory markets (will the winner carry more than 300 electoral votes), turnout markets (will turnout exceed 65% of eligible voters), and timing markets (will a contested election be certified by January 6). These secondary markets are valuable because they let traders express nuanced views — you might believe a candidate will win but disagree with the market's view on margin, and trade the margin market separately.

The structure of election prediction markets on PolyGram is simple. Each market is a binary contract trading between $0.00 and $1.00. A contract priced at $0.58 means the crowd assigns a 58% probability to that outcome. If you believe the true probability is higher, you buy YES; if lower, you buy NO. Your maximum loss is your stake. Multi-candidate races (such as primary fields with five or more candidates) are structured as a set of binary contracts — one per candidate — that collectively sum to approximately $1.00. This lets you trade any individual candidate without taking a position on the entire field.

Every election market on PolyGram specifies its resolution source in advance, ensuring transparency and eliminating ambiguity. US markets typically resolve to the Associated Press call or the certified state result. International markets resolve to the official election commission of the relevant country. Disputed outcomes escalate to the UMA optimistic oracle before settlement. Use the odds calculator to convert between probability and traditional odds formats, or check the leaderboard to find the top election traders on the platform. For broader geopolitical markets beyond elections, visit the geopolitics hub.