How prediction markets work

Prediction markets let you trade on real-world events — elections, sports, crypto prices, and more — by buying shares that pay out if your prediction is correct.

A prediction market works like a stock exchange, but instead of company shares you trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. Each contract trades between $0 and $1. A price of $0.72 means the crowd thinks there is a 72% chance that event will happen. If you believe the true probability is higher, you buy; if lower, you sell. When the event resolves, correct shares pay $1 and incorrect shares pay $0. The difference between your purchase price and $1 is your profit. Unlike sports betting, there is no bookmaker setting odds and taking a margin — the price is set entirely by supply and demand from other traders. This means you always get the market's honest probability, updated in real time as new information arrives. Getting started on PolyGram takes under a minute: create an account, deposit USDC on Polygon, browse open markets, and place your first trade. Every settlement is on-chain and verifiable. Whether you want to hedge risk, express a view on an upcoming election, or simply trade predictions for profit, prediction markets offer a transparent and efficient way to put your conviction to work.

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