Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has served as President of Ukraine since May 2019. The market tests whether he will remain in office through the end of 2026, with resolution triggered by any announcement of resignation or removal—regardless of implementation timing. The 16% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders pricing in multiple pathways to departure: military collapse forcing political transition, negotiated settlement requiring leadership change, domestic political pressure, or constitutional removal.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Ukraine's previous president, Petro Poroshenko, completed a full five-year term despite wartime conditions and faced no serious removal threat. However, Zelenskyy's political position differs materially: he governs under active full-scale invasion since February 2022, faces constitutional term limits (though these could theoretically be suspended), and operates within a fractionalised parliament where coalition stability remains contingent. Comparative cases—leaders departing mid-conflict through negotiated settlement or military defeat—are rare but not unprecedented in post-Soviet space.
Near-term catalysts centre on battlefield dynamics and diplomatic developments. Any major territorial losses or military stalemate could trigger domestic pressure for negotiated settlement, potentially requiring leadership change as part of peace terms. Conversely, significant military gains would likely stabilise his position. Constitutional questions around term limits expire in May 2025, creating a formal decision point. Announcements from Russia regarding negotiation willingness, NATO commitment levels, and domestic Ukrainian political movements warrant close monitoring through 2025-26.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.1M in lifetime turnover and $78K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 16%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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