Trade: Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $30K
- Total Volume
- $13K
- 24h Volume
- $169
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| June 30 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Sanae Takaichi, Japan's defence minister and a senior figure within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, could meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of 2026. Such an encounter would represent a significant diplomatic moment between Tokyo and Beijing, given Japan's strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific and the current tensions surrounding Taiwan and regional security. The 40% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether formal bilateral engagement at this level will materialise within the specified timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests high-level ministerial meetings between Japan and China occur irregularly but with some regularity. Japanese defence ministers have met with Chinese counterparts and senior leadership on several occasions, though such meetings often depend on broader diplomatic thaws rather than scheduled protocol. The last substantive engagement between Japanese defence officials and Chinese leadership occurred in 2022, before current tensions escalated. The current probability reflects scepticism about near-term rapprochement, though not dismissal of the possibility entirely.
Key catalysts include any announced state visits, multilateral summits where both officials are scheduled, or explicit diplomatic initiatives aimed at reducing military tensions. The Japan-China relationship remains strained over defence spending, military exercises, and regional positioning. Traders should monitor announcements from Japan's Ministry of Defence and China's Foreign Ministry regarding bilateral talks, as well as any ASEAN or East Asia Summit scheduling that might create meeting opportunities. Economic pressures and domestic political shifts in either country could also shift incentives towards dialogue.
Wikipedia Context
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Xi (letter)
Xi is the fourteenth letter of the Greek alphabet, representing the voiceless consonant cluster. Its name is pronounced in both Ancient Greek and Modern Greek. In the system of Greek numerals, it has a value of 60. Xi was derived from the Phoenician letter samekh (𐤎).
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Xi Meijuan
Xi Meijuan is a Chinese film, television and stage actress. She is a member of the 12th National People's Congress.
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Xi Mensae
ξ Mensae, Latinized as Xi Mensae, is a single star in the southern circumpolar constellation of Mensa. It has a yellow-orange hue and is just barely visible to the naked eye as a dim point of light with an apparent visual magnitude of 5.84. This object is located about 366 light-years away from the Sun based on parallax, and is drifting closer with a radial
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XI Mechanized Brigade (Argentina)The XI Mechanized Brigade "Brigadier General Juan Manuel de Rosas" is a brigade of the Argentine Army. It is based at the “Río Gallegos” Army Garrison.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$13K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $169 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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