Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| None before 2027 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Marco Rubio | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Pete Hegseth | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Brooke Rollins | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Sean Duffy | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Linda McMahon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lee Zeldin | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Cabinet turnover during a presidential term depends on policy disagreements, personal conflicts, legal exposure, and shifting political priorities. Trump's first administration (2017–2021) saw notably high attrition, with 91% of cabinet positions experiencing at least one departure. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 25% implied probability that at least one cabinet member will announce a departure or removal between now and the end of 2026, suggesting traders assess the risk of near-term exits as meaningful but not dominant.
Historical precedent suggests cabinet instability correlates with policy implementation friction and external pressures. Trump's first term averaged roughly one cabinet departure every four months, with departures spanning voluntary resignations (Rex Tillerson, James Mattis) and forced removals (Jeff Sessions, Michael Flynn). The second administration began with several controversial appointees facing Senate confirmation scrutiny and ongoing legal proceedings, creating potential flashpoints. Recent reporting indicates tension between certain cabinet members and the White House over implementation of policy priorities, though no imminent departures have been publicly signalled as of late 2024.
Traders monitoring this market should track confirmation hearings, policy implementation announcements, and any public disagreements between cabinet members and the President. Legal developments affecting cabinet officials—particularly those with ongoing litigation—could accelerate departure timelines. Congressional pressure, particularly from within the Republican caucus, may also trigger forced exits. The resolution mechanism rewards speed of announcement rather than effective departure date, meaning even rumoured or leaked resignations that are subsequently formalised would trigger immediate settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $407 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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