Trade: White House # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $307
- 24h Volume
- $307
- Open Interest
- $307
Market outcomes
| <20 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 20-39 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 40-59 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 60-79 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 80-99 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 100-119 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 120-139 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| 140-159 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
Market context
The White House's official X account will post between 12:00 PM ET on 15 May and 12:00 PM ET on 22 May 2026, a seven-day window spanning a full week of potential communications. The resolution mechanism counts main feed posts, quote posts and reposts, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed itself. The current order book on Polymarket implies just 1% probability of this outcome occurring, suggesting traders expect either minimal posting activity or a specific threshold that proves difficult to reach during this particular week.
Historical posting patterns from the White House account show considerable variability depending on the political calendar and news cycle. During routine weeks without major announcements or crises, the account typically posts between 5 and 15 times daily, which would yield 35–105 posts over seven days. However, the specific threshold this market is testing remains unclear from the market description alone. The 1% implied probability suggests the crowd expects either an unusually quiet week or that the resolution threshold is set substantially higher than typical weekly output.
Traders should monitor the White House schedule for planned events during mid-May 2026, including State of the Union responses, major policy announcements or international summits that could drive posting frequency. Congressional activity, election cycles and breaking news will all influence communication volume. The resolution depends entirely on the Post Counter tracker at the specified URL, making data availability and tracker accuracy critical factors. Any technical issues with the tracker or ambiguity in what constitutes a countable post could affect settlement.
Wikipedia Context
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White HouseThe White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. Located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., it has served as the residence of every U.S. president since John Adams in 1800 when the national capital was moved from Philadelphia. The White House is also a metonym for the Executive Office of the Pres
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White House State Ballroom
The White House State Ballroom is part of a planned new East Wing for the White House, the official residence of the president of the United States. The new East Wing will replace the original, which was torn down in October 2025 in preparation for the new wing's construction. The site, in Washington, D.C., has been under construction since September 2025. A
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White House Farm murdersThe White House Farm murders took place near the village of Tolleshunt D'Arcy, Essex, England, during the night of 6–7 August 1985. Nevill and June Bamber were shot and killed inside their farmhouse at White House Farm along with their adopted daughter, Sheila Caffell, and Sheila's six-year-old twin sons, Daniel and Nicholas Caffell. The only surviving membe
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White House Press SecretaryThe White House press secretary is a senior White House official whose primary responsibility is to act as spokesperson for the executive branch of the United States federal government, especially with regard to the president, senior aides and executives, as well as government policies.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/WhiteHouse. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "White House # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$307 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $307 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/WhiteHouse. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "White House # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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