Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 5 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $297K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Person K | — | |
| Ken Paxton | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| Person L | — | |
| John Cornyn | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Dawn Buckingham | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person M | — | |
| Beth Van Duyne | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person O | — | |
The Republican nominee for Texas Senate will be decided by the party’s runoff on 26 May, pitting incumbent John Cornyn against Attorney General Ken Paxton after no one cleared a majority in March. In the absence of a live price, Polymarket’s order book is the mechanism forming the implied probability today: bids and offers reflect where traders think the runoff is heading, and that price can move quickly on polling, endorsements and turnout signals. Texas is a deep-red state in federal races, so the main uncertainty is not which party wins in November, but which Republican clears the primary hurdle.
Comparable contests suggest runoffs can diverge from first-round expectations when one faction consolidates late. Cornyn enters with incumbency, national donor support and institutional backing, while Paxton has a harder-edged base appeal and has already shown strength in a low-turnout, intra-party electorate. A University of Houston poll in early May had Paxton ahead of Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely runoff voters, underscoring how narrow the race appears rather than pointing to a settled outcome.
The main catalysts are the final rounds of campaigning, any late endorsement from figures such as Greg Abbott, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, and whether turnout operations appear stronger on one side. Recent reporting, including Texas Tribune coverage and local polling, has focused on the unusually tight split between the candidates and the lack of consensus among Republican voters. Traders will also watch whether any post-primary alliances emerge from the March field, and whether the Texas GOP announces results on 26 May without delay.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 26 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Political markets occasionally see longer settlement when outcomes hinge on official certification rather than the polling result itself — the proposer waits for the certifying body's announcement, which can push payout 12-48 hours past the calendar end-date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner", political markets often see book depth concentrate in the 24-48 hours after a debate or policy event — spreads can widen to 3-5¢ for a few minutes after breaking news while makers re-price.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($297K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16.6M in lifetime turnover and $297K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $77K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner", the considerations above apply directly — Political markets are exposed to information asymmetry between insider and retail traders, and to last-minute polling shifts that can move the line 15-20¢ in the final 48 hours. Long-dated political contracts also carry meaningful time decay if the underlying race is close.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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