Resolution criteria on PolyGram: General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Current odds favour the NO side at 1%, making this a high-confidence market (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle), backed by $4.2M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Rafael López Aliaga | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Carlos Álvarez | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| César Acuña | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Vladimir Cerrón | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Roberto Chiabra | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Enrique Valderrama | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mesías Guevara | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jorge Nieto | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Peru will hold general elections on 12 April 2026 to elect its next president. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability for this specific outcome, suggesting the market is pricing in either substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner or confidence in alternative candidates. The settlement window extends to 31 October 2026, allowing for potential second-round voting if no candidate achieves the required threshold in the first round.
Peru's electoral history demonstrates volatile political dynamics that complicate long-term forecasting. The country has experienced significant institutional instability, with recent presidents facing legal challenges and low approval ratings. Pedro Castillo's presidency (2021–2022) ended in a self-coup attempt, whilst Dina Boluarte's subsequent administration faced widespread protests. These precedents suggest that frontrunner positions can shift substantially during campaign periods, and that candidate viability depends heavily on maintaining institutional legitimacy and public confidence.
Traders should monitor candidate registration deadlines, polling releases, and any judicial decisions affecting candidacy eligibility. Peru's electoral authority (ONPE) will announce the official candidate list in coming months. Recent reporting indicates fragmentation across multiple political movements, with no dominant frontrunner yet established. The low probability reflected in current order book pricing may reflect this fragmentation, though it could shift materially once leading candidates emerge and campaign dynamics crystallise. Any significant political crisis or institutional challenge in the months preceding April 2026 could substantially alter market expectations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 12 April 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Political markets occasionally see longer settlement when outcomes hinge on official certification rather than the polling result itself — the proposer waits for the certifying body's announcement, which can push payout 12-48 hours past the calendar end-date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Peru Presidential Election Winner", political markets often see book depth concentrate in the 24-48 hours after a debate or policy event — spreads can widen to 3-5¢ for a few minutes after breaking news while makers re-price.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($4.2M of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "Peru Presidential Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$57.4M in lifetime turnover and $4.2M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $83K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 April 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Peru Presidential Election Winner", the considerations above apply directly — Political markets are exposed to information asymmetry between insider and retail traders, and to last-minute polling shifts that can move the line 15-20¢ in the final 48 hours. Long-dated political contracts also carry meaningful time decay if the underlying race is close.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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