Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party. In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dem-Dem | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| Rep-Rep | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Dem-Rep | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| Other | — | |
California's non-partisan primary on 2 June 2026 will select the top two vote-getters to advance to the gubernatorial general election, regardless of party affiliation. The market is pricing the probability that both advancing candidates will be from the same party at 19%, implying a 81% likelihood of a split-party general election matchup. This outcome would require either two Democrats or two Republicans to finish first and second amongst all candidates, a scenario that has become increasingly rare in California's top-two system since its introduction in 2012.
Historical precedent suggests same-party advances are uncommon. In the 2022 gubernatorial primary, Democrat Gavin Newsom and Republican Brian Dahle advanced, creating a general election between opposing parties. The 2018 race similarly produced a Democrat-versus-Republican matchup. Same-party advances have occurred in California's top-two system but typically only when one party's field is substantially fragmented or when a dominant candidate from one party faces weak opposition. The current 19% probability reflects market expectations that neither major party will achieve sufficient consolidation to place two candidates in the top two.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and field-building activity through early 2026, particularly whether high-profile Republicans enter the race to challenge Newsom or whether Democratic challengers gain traction. Polling releases in the months preceding the primary will provide crucial signals about candidate viability and vote distribution. Campaign finance disclosures and endorsement patterns will indicate whether either party is coalescing around preferred candidates or remaining fragmented.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$70K in lifetime turnover and $38K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $115 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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