Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Denis Sassou Nguesso ceases to be President of the Republic of the Congo for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Denis Sassou Nguesso's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026? | 14% YES | 87% NO |
Denis Sassou Nguesso has governed the Republic of the Congo since 1997, with a brief interruption from 1992–1997. He secured re-election in March 2021 with over 88% of the vote, extending his mandate to 2026. The question of whether he will remain in office through the end of 2026 hinges on whether he steps down voluntarily, faces forced removal through political upheaval, or experiences a health crisis that prevents him from fulfilling presidential duties. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 14% probability, reflecting a baseline expectation of continuity.
Sassou Nguesso's longevity in power—spanning multiple decades across Congo's post-colonial period—provides the primary historical anchor for assessing removal risk. Few sub-Saharan leaders have maintained office as consistently; those who have typically faced removal only through military intervention or severe institutional collapse. Congo's security situation, whilst fragile in eastern regions, has not destabilised the capital sufficiently to threaten the presidency directly. Regional precedents like Cameroon's Paul Biya (in office since 1982) suggest entrenched leaders with control over security apparatus rarely exit involuntarily absent extraordinary circumstances.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding constitutional amendments, which Sassou Nguesso has used previously to extend term limits, and any signals about his health or succession planning. The 2026 election calendar itself becomes relevant if he signals intent to contest again or step aside. Recent reporting from Reuters and AFP on Congo's political stability indicates no imminent institutional challenge, though economic deterioration or unexpected security escalation could alter the calculus. The 14% probability reflects these low but non-negligible tail risks.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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