Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Greg Hull | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Brian Cillessen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Duke Rodriguez | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Judith Nakamura | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| John Sanchez | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
The Republican primary for New Mexico's governorship will determine the party's nominee ahead of the general election on 5 November 2026. The primary itself occurs on 2 June 2026, with the state Republican Party providing official results that will settle this market. Current order book pricing implies a 68% probability that a Republican primary winner will be declared, reflecting trader assessment that the primary will proceed as scheduled rather than being cancelled or consolidated with other contests.
New Mexico has held competitive Republican gubernatorial primaries in recent cycles. The 2022 primary saw multiple candidates contest the nomination, with results determined through standard primary voting rather than convention selection. Historical precedent suggests the state party will conduct a conventional primary process, though changes to scheduling or format remain possible. The implied probability of 68% suggests meaningful uncertainty either about whether the primary occurs in its expected form or about the baseline likelihood of a contested nomination proceeding to completion without extraordinary circumstances.
Traders should monitor New Mexico Republican Party announcements regarding candidate filing deadlines, currently expected in the coming months, and any formal changes to primary procedures. The state legislature could theoretically alter election timing or procedures, though this remains unlikely given current political conditions. Campaign announcements from potential candidates will clarify field size and competitiveness. The June 2026 settlement window is firm, creating a defined timeframe for resolution based on official party declarations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$839K in lifetime turnover and $87K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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