Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Election and policy markets historically tighten as polling firms publish their final round and prediction-market traders fade or back the consensus. Odds will populate live once the order book fills (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle), backed by $60K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Massie 6%+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gallrein 9%+ | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Gallrein 3-6% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Massie 3-6% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gallrein <3% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Massie <3% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gallrein 6-9% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Kentucky’s 4th District Republican primary is scheduled for 19 May 2026, with this market resolving to the absolute vote-share gap between the first- and second-placed candidates. On Polymarket, the implied price is formed continuously from the live order book, so the crowd view reflects where traders are willing to bid and offer at any moment rather than a fixed polling average. The current 0% YES reading indicates no priced likelihood for the specific threshold or outcome required by the contract at present.
For context, Kentucky’s recent federal elections have shown that the state can deliver large Republican margins, but a primary margin is a different exercise: turnout is much lower, name recognition matters more, and local organisation can move the result materially. Markets on primary margins usually hinge less on the headline winner and more on whether the race becomes a blowout or remains competitive. In the district, the Republican winner will be the decisive figure for the general election contest, but the spread between the top two primary candidates is what this market measures.
The main catalysts are late endorsements, campaign spending, turnout operations, candidate debate performances, and any changes to the field before polling day. Traders should also watch filing deadlines, ballot access disputes, and whether any outside groups concentrate resources in the closing stretch. As of the latest reporting on the race, the market has already seen active pricing on individual winner and margin contracts, so any new local polling or campaign announcements can still move the order book quickly in the final run-up to 19 May.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 19 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Political markets occasionally see longer settlement when outcomes hinge on official certification rather than the polling result itself — the proposer waits for the certifying body's announcement, which can push payout 12-48 hours past the calendar end-date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory", political markets often see book depth concentrate in the 24-48 hours after a debate or policy event — spreads can widen to 3-5¢ for a few minutes after breaking news while makers re-price.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($60K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$181K in lifetime turnover and $60K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $162K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory", the considerations above apply directly — Political markets are exposed to information asymmetry between insider and retail traders, and to last-minute polling shifts that can move the line 15-20¢ in the final 48 hours. Long-dated political contracts also carry meaningful time decay if the underlying race is close.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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