Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count. If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and investment banker, was nominated by President Trump to serve as Chair of the Federal Reserve. The market examines whether Warsh will formally withdraw from this nomination before 15 May 2026. Notably, Senate rejection does not trigger a "Yes" resolution—only a formal withdrawal by Warsh himself or the administration counts. If Warsh is confirmed by the Senate before the settlement date, the market resolves immediately to "No".
Historical precedent suggests Fed Chair nominations rarely face withdrawal once formally submitted. Robert Bork's 1987 Supreme Court nomination withdrawal remains the most prominent recent example of a high-profile judicial nominee withdrawing, though Fed nominations operate under different political dynamics. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the baseline expectation that nominees at this stage typically proceed through confirmation hearings rather than withdraw. Warsh's prior Fed experience and relative lack of controversial positions compared to other recent nominees distinguish his candidacy from withdrawal-prone nominations.
The key catalysts centre on Senate Banking Committee scheduling and confirmation hearings, typically held within weeks of nomination. Market participants should monitor any significant revelations during background checks, unexpected opposition from Senate moderates, or statements from Warsh indicating reluctance to proceed. The timeline to May 2026 provides substantial runway; most Fed Chair confirmations conclude within three to four months of nomination. Any withdrawal would likely occur before formal hearings commence, making early 2025 the critical observation window for material developments.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$306K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $16K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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