Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 280–294 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 310–324 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 340–354 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| <280 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 295–309 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| 325–339 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| 355+ | 22% YES | 78% NO |
Russia's State Duma will hold legislative elections in September 2026. This market resolves based on the number of seats United Russia, the ruling party, secures in the 450-seat chamber. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 7% probability, suggesting traders expect United Russia to fall short of a specific seat threshold. The settlement window closes on 20 September 2026, with a backstop resolution date of 31 May 2027 if official results remain unclear.
United Russia has dominated Russian legislative elections for two decades, winning 238 seats in 2016 and 324 seats in 2021 under a mixed electoral system combining proportional and single-mandate district voting. The party's dominance reflects both genuine electoral support and structural advantages within Russia's political system. Historical precedent suggests United Russia typically secures a supermajority, making the 7% probability contingent on either a significant electoral shift or the market pricing a specific lower bracket as the resolution threshold.
Key variables include potential changes to electoral rules before September 2026, the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions on domestic politics, and any shifts in regional party performance. Traders should monitor official announcements from Russia's Central Electoral Commission regarding procedural changes or candidate registration deadlines. Recent reporting on Russian domestic politics and any statements from United Russia leadership regarding campaign strategy will provide signals about party confidence and potential vulnerabilities heading into the election cycle.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $51K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $141 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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