Trade: Cyprus House of Representatives Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Cyprus on May 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Cyprus House of Representatives. If voting in the Cyprus House of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $85K
- Total Volume
- $22K
- 24h Volume
- $145
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Party 21 | — | |
| Party 23 | — | |
| Party 25 | — | |
| Party 27 | — | |
| Party 29 | — | |
| Party 31 | — | |
| Party 33 | — | |
| Party 35 | — | |
Market context
Parliamentary elections in Cyprus are scheduled for 24 May 2026, with the winning party determined by plurality of seats in the 56-member House of Representatives. The settlement window closes at the end of that day, with a fallback to "Other" if voting does not occur by 31 December 2026. In the event of a seat tie, the tiebreaker moves to total valid votes received, then to a secondary tiebreaker if that also produces parity. Currently, no live price exists on Polymarket's order book, meaning the crowd-implied probability has yet to form through trading activity.
Cyprus's parliamentary landscape has remained relatively stable across recent electoral cycles, with the centre-right Democratic Rally (DISY) and centre-left Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL) alternating dominance since 2011. The 2021 election saw DISY secure 27 seats to AKEL's 26, establishing a baseline for assessing 2026 outcomes. Smaller parties including DIKO, EDEK, and the Greens have consistently captured secondary positions, though their combined seat count rarely exceeds 15. Historical fragmentation suggests no single party has achieved an outright majority in recent decades, making coalition dynamics material to understanding which party will claim the plurality.
Key catalysts include any formal campaign announcements from major parties, shifts in Cyprus's economic conditions or EU relations, and developments on the longstanding Cyprus problem affecting Turkish-Cypriot representation. Traders should monitor polling releases from local research firms and statements from party leadership as the election approaches, particularly regarding potential pre-election coalitions that could reshape seat distribution expectations.
Wikipedia Context
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House of Representatives (Cyprus)The House of Representatives is the national unicameral legislature of the Republic of Cyprus. Members and three observers representing Armenian, Latin, and Maronite Cypriots are elected by proportional representation every five years. 30% of seats are allocated to Turkish Cypriots, but these have been vacant since 1964. The House of Representatives of Cypru
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Cyprus MuseumThe Cyprus Museum is the oldest and largest archaeological museum in Cyprus, located on Museum Street in central Nicosia.
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Cyprus Hockey AssociationThe Cyprus Hockey Association is the national governing body for the sport of field hockey in Cyprus. At club level, it runs the field hockey leagues and organises representation of Cyprus in the EuroHockey Club Trophy and Challenge.
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Cyprus Museum of Natural HistoryThe Cyprus Museum of Natural History is a natural history museum on the outskirts of Nicosia, Cyprus.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Cyprus House of Representatives Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$22K in lifetime turnover and $85K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $145 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Cyprus House of Representatives Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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