Resolution criteria on PolyGram: United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the second-most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Labour | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Conservative | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Liberal Democrats | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Reform | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Green | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Party A | — | |
| Party B | — | |
On 7 May 2026, voters across England will elect councillors to metropolitan boroughs, London boroughs, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils. This market resolves to whichever party's official candidates secure the second-highest number of council seats nationally. The 87% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong consensus that a specific party will finish second, though the market remains open to alternative outcomes as traders continue to price in available information.
Historical local election results provide the primary framework for assessing this probability. Labour finished second to the Conservatives in the 2019 local elections, whilst the Lib Dems placed third. In the 2023 local elections, Labour surged to first place with significant gains, whilst the Conservatives collapsed to third behind the Lib Dems. These shifts demonstrate that second-place positioning can change substantially between electoral cycles, particularly when national political momentum shifts or when protest voting against the governing party intensifies.
Key catalysts through the settlement window include any major shifts in national polling, leadership changes within the major parties, and economic data releases that might alter voter sentiment. The Electoral Commission will publish detailed candidate nomination information as the election approaches, allowing traders to assess the strength of party organisations across different regions. Any significant by-election results or policy announcements in the months preceding May 2026 could materially affect expectations about which party will consolidate second place across the fragmented local authority landscape.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: 2nd Place" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$137K in lifetime turnover and $42K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $98K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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