Trade: 2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $200K
- Total Volume
- $688K
- 24h Volume
- $30K
- Open Interest
- $48K
Market outcomes
| Park Heong-joon | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Cho Kyoung-tae | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Park Seong-hoon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Choi In-ho | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lee Jae-sung | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hong Soon-heon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Candidate B | — | |
Market context
South Korea will hold municipal elections on 3 June 2026, with Busan's mayoral race determining who leads the country's second-largest city. The current crowd-implied probability of 29% YES reflects substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner, with the order book showing meaningful liquidity across competing candidates. This probability has been formed through traders pricing in multiple viable contenders, though the specific frontrunner remains contested across different market positions.
Busan mayoral elections typically reflect broader national political dynamics, given the city's significance as a Democratic Party stronghold and strategic battleground. The 2022 presidential election saw conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol win nationally whilst losing Busan decisively, illustrating how local contests can diverge from national trends. The 2018 mayoral election resulted in a Democratic victory, establishing the incumbent's baseline support. Current polling and party positioning will likely shift considerably between now and June 2026, making early probability estimates particularly sensitive to leadership changes, factional realignments within South Korea's major parties, and any corruption scandals affecting sitting officials.
Key catalysts include the Democratic Party and People Power Party candidate announcements, typically occurring in early 2026, and any developments affecting the current mayor's approval ratings or party standing. South Korean local elections frequently feature last-minute momentum shifts driven by national political events or local controversies. Traders should monitor National Assembly dynamics and whether Busan-specific issues—such as port development or urban infrastructure projects—gain electoral salience. Official results will be published by the National Election Commission, with settlement occurring after consensus reporting confirms the winner.
Wikipedia Context
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2026 Busan Open – Singles
Térence Atmane was the defending champion but chose not to defend his title.
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2026 Busan Open
The 2026 Busan Open was a professional tennis tournament played on hardcourts. It was the 23rd edition of the tournament which was part of the 2026 ATP Challenger Tour. It took place in Busan, South Korea between 13 and 19 April 2026.
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2026 Busan Open – Doubles
Rio Noguchi and Yuta Shimizu were the defending champions but only Shimizu chose to defend his title, partnering Saketh Myneni. They lost in the first round to Ben Jones and Joshua Paris.
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2026 Bangladeshi general electionGeneral election was held in Bangladesh on 12 February 2026 to elect members of the Jatiya Sangsad, as well as the proposed Senate. It was the first general election since the July Uprising of 2024 that ended the 15-year-long rule of Sheikh Hasina. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, won a landslide victory in the election, securin
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$688K in lifetime turnover and $200K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "2026 Busan Mayoral Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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