Trade: Bulgaria Presidential Election
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $116K
- Total Volume
- $99K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $18K
Market outcomes
| Iliana Iotova | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Blagomir Kotsev | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kostadin Kostadinov | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Yanaki Stoilov | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Atanas Atanasov | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Delyan Peevski | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rosen Plevneliev | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Аndrey Gyurov | — | |
Market context
Bulgaria is scheduled to hold presidential elections in autumn 2026, with the contest expected to determine the country's next head of state following the conclusion of the current presidential term. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 58% probability for the affirmative resolution, suggesting traders assess a moderately favourable likelihood that elections will proceed as scheduled within the settlement window ending 30 November 2026.
Bulgarian presidential elections have historically been contested affairs, with recent cycles demonstrating volatility in both candidate emergence and electoral outcomes. The 2021 election saw multiple rounds and protracted negotiations over government formation, whilst the 2016 contest produced a runoff between competing political factions. These precedents suggest that whilst autumn scheduling is typical, the precise timing and candidate field remain subject to political dynamics that can shift substantially in the eighteen months preceding the vote.
Traders should monitor several key developments: formal announcement of the election date by Bulgaria's Central Election Commission, which typically occurs several months in advance; the political positioning of major parties including GERB, Socialist Party, and the various centrist formations that have gained prominence in recent parliamentary cycles; and any constitutional or legislative changes affecting presidential powers or electoral procedures. Recent parliamentary instability in Bulgaria has occasionally prompted early elections, making political stability a material consideration for whether the scheduled autumn 2026 date holds firm.
Wikipedia Context
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2021 Bulgarian general electionGeneral elections were held in Bulgaria on 14 November 2021 to elect both the president and the National Assembly. They were the country's third parliamentary elections in 2021, with no party able to form a government after the elections in April and July. A second round of the presidential elections were held on 21 November 2021 as no candidate was able to
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2016 Bulgarian presidential electionPresidential elections were held in Bulgaria on 6 November 2016, alongside a referendum on changes to the electoral system and political party funding. The second round was held on 13 November 2016, resulting in the victory of Rumen Radev.
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2011 Bulgarian presidential electionPresidential elections were held in Bulgaria on 23 October 2011, with a runoff held on 30 October 2011. Incumbent president Georgi Parvanov was not eligible for re-election; the Constitution of Bulgaria limits a president to two terms. No candidate won outright in the first round, resulting in a runoff between the eventual winner, Rosen Plevneliev of GERB, a
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2006 Bulgarian presidential electionPresidential elections were held in Bulgaria on 22 October 2006, as decided on 27 July 2006 by the Bulgarian Parliament. The runoff took place on 29 October 2006, while the electoral campaign spanned 19 September – 20 October. At the election, Georgi Parvanov won his second and final term as President of Bulgaria.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Bulgaria Presidential Election" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$99K in lifetime turnover and $116K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Bulgaria Presidential Election"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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