Trade: Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $56K
- Total Volume
- $26K
- 24h Volume
- $5K
- Open Interest
- $10K
Market outcomes
| May 15 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| May 31 | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| May 22 | 75% YES | 26% NO |
Market context
The US Senate must pass a reconciliation bill—legislation that bypasses the normal 60-vote filibuster threshold and requires only a simple majority—by 31 May 2026. Reconciliation bills are procedurally powerful tools for advancing fiscal measures, but their use is constrained by the Byrd Rule and limited to provisions with budgetary effects. The current 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism about passage within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests reconciliation bills are rare and politically contentious. Since 1980, Congress has deployed reconciliation roughly 25 times, typically during periods of unified government control. The most recent major reconciliation effort was the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, passed under Democratic control. The 118th Congress (2023–2025) saw no reconciliation bills enacted, whilst the 119th Congress began in January 2025. A reconciliation bill would require either unified party control or extraordinary bipartisan consensus on fiscal priorities—neither currently evident.
Traders should monitor Senate leadership statements on fiscal priorities, budget resolution timelines, and any shifts in party composition following the 2024 elections. The Congressional Budget Office's economic forecasts and deficit projections often trigger reconciliation discussions. Additionally, any major legislative agenda items—tax reform, healthcare spending, or infrastructure—that Senate leadership designates for reconciliation treatment would materially shift probabilities. The tight settlement window of roughly 16 months from the market's creation leaves limited runway for the procedural steps required to draft, debate, and pass such legislation.
Wikipedia Context
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Senate Pact 2023The Senate Pact 2023 is an electoral alliance among the Civic Coalition (KO), the New Left (NL), the Polish People's Party (PSL) and Poland 2050 for the 2023 Polish Senate election. The accord was agreed on 28 February 2023 by party representatives Marcin Kierwiński (KO), Dariusz Wieczorek (NL), Piotr Zgorzelski (KP-PSL) and Jacek Bury.
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Senate, Saskatchewan
Senate is an unincorporated community within the Rural Municipality of Reno No. 51, Saskatchewan, Canada. The village had a population of 63 around 1940 and has since declined to 0 residents. The townsite is located along Highway 21 and Highway 13, about 20 kilometres (12 mi) east of the Alberta–Saskatchewan border and is about 200 kilometres (120 mi) south-
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Vice President of the United StatesThe vice president of the United States is the second-highest office in the executive branch of the U.S. federal government, after the president of the United States, and ranks first in the presidential line of succession. The vice president is also an officer in the legislative branch, as the president of the Senate. In this capacity, the vice president is
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Australian SenateThe Senate is the upper house of the bicameral Parliament of Australia, the lower house being the House of Representatives.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$26K in lifetime turnover and $56K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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