Resolution criteria on PolyGram: On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security. This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma. Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kevin Hern | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kevin Stitt | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person G | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person L | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person N | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person S | 0% YES | 100% NO |
In March 2026, President Trump announced that Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin would be appointed Secretary of Homeland Security, creating a vacancy in the Senate seat. Oklahoma's governor will appoint a replacement to serve until the next general election, following state law procedures. The market settles on whether someone will formally fill this seat by November 2026, with the 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflecting near-certainty that a replacement will be named within that timeframe.
Historical precedent strongly supports this expectation. When Senate vacancies occur, governors typically appoint replacements within weeks rather than months. The 2020 vacancy created by Kelly Loeffler's appointment to Georgia's seat was filled within days; similar rapid appointments followed vacancies in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and other states in recent years. Oklahoma's Republican governor has clear authority and political incentive to fill the seat promptly, particularly given the chamber's narrow margins and the state's Republican alignment.
The key catalyst is the formal announcement of Mullin's confirmation and resignation from the Senate, which triggers the appointment clock. Traders should monitor confirmation hearings for the DHS secretary role and any statements from Oklahoma's governor regarding their preferred appointee. The settlement window extends to early November 2026, providing ample time for the standard appointment process. No legislative action or special election is required—gubernatorial appointment suffices—making the procedural path straightforward and the 0% probability assessment consistent with historical patterns.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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