Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030. This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Venezuela's government must publicly announce a date for its next presidential election by 31 December 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The election itself need not occur before 2030, only be scheduled by the deadline. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism that Nicolás Maduro's administration will formalise electoral plans within the next two years, despite constitutional obligations to hold elections.
Venezuela has a fraught recent history with electoral scheduling. The 2018 presidential election was called with minimal notice, and the 2020 parliamentary elections were postponed multiple times before proceeding. Maduro's government has historically used scheduling announcements as tactical instruments rather than commitments to fixed timelines. The absence of any formal electoral calendar since the disputed 2024 presidential contest—where official results remain contested—suggests institutional reluctance to establish binding dates. Comparable authoritarian regimes often delay such announcements to maintain political flexibility, which traders should weigh against any constitutional pressure or international pressure that might force transparency.
Traders should monitor statements from the National Electoral Council (CNE) and official government communications for any scheduling announcements. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates the CNE remains under government control with limited operational independence. Key catalysts include potential negotiations with opposition factions, international diplomatic pressure, or internal regime calculations about electoral viability. Any formal announcement—even one for an election years hence—would trigger resolution, making this a binary event dependent on administrative disclosure rather than electoral outcomes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$574K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $239 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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