Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <30 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 30-34 | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 40-44 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| 35-39 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| 45-49 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| 55+ | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 50-54 | 34% YES | 66% NO |
New Zealand will hold a general election on 7 November 2026, with voters determining the composition of the 120-seat House of Representatives. The Labour Party, currently in opposition after losing government in the 2023 election to the National Party-led coalition, will contest the election under leader Chris Hipkins. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 16% probability for Labour achieving a specific seat range, reflecting market participants' assessment of the party's electoral prospects roughly eighteen months before polling day.
Labour's historical performance provides context for interpreting current market pricing. The party won 64 seats in 2023, down from 65 in 2020 and 63 in 2017, indicating relatively stable mid-range representation over recent cycles. Under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional voting system, parties typically require around 61 seats for a majority coalition. Labour's current polling averages approximately 27–30%, positioning it as a credible alternative government but not the frontrunner against the incumbent National Party, which polls around 35–38%.
Key catalysts shaping trader positioning include quarterly polling releases, which typically move market prices as sentiment shifts. The government's economic performance—particularly inflation, employment figures, and cost-of-living pressures—will influence voter sentiment through 2026. Any significant leadership changes within Labour or the governing coalition, policy announcements on major issues like healthcare or housing, and campaign-period developments in the final months before November will provide material information. The settlement window closes 7 November 2026, with resolution based on official Electoral Commission results.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$480 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $240 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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