Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| E | — | |
| Democratic Party | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
New York's 21st congressional district will elect a House representative in November 2026. The seat is currently held by Republican Elise Stefanik, though she has been nominated as Trump's UN Ambassador and may vacate the seat before the general election. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Democratic victory at 67%, reflecting uncertainty around whether Stefanik remains the Republican nominee and the district's competitive nature in recent cycles.
NY-21 has shifted considerably since 2020, when Trump won the district by 3.5 percentage points whilst Stefanik won her House race by 13 points. The 2022 midterms saw Republicans perform strongly nationally, yet the district's composition—spanning parts of the North Country and Mohawk Valley—has trended slightly towards Democrats in presidential matchups. Historical precedent suggests open-seat races in this district favour the party with stronger national momentum, though Stefanik's personal popularity has consistently outperformed the Republican baseline.
Key catalysts will include Stefanik's formal confirmation or withdrawal from the UN Ambassador role, expected in early 2025, which determines whether Republicans field an incumbent or replacement candidate. The Democratic primary process and candidate quality will significantly influence the implied probability, as will national political conditions closer to autumn 2026. Special attention should be paid to redistricting outcomes and any demographic shifts in the district, though current boundaries remain unchanged from 2022.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NY-21 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23K in lifetime turnover and $33K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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