Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Yemen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Somalia | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Nigeria | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| None before 2027 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Colombia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cuba | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Iraq | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market prices the probability that the United States will conduct an aerial strike—via drone, missile, or aircraft—against a specific foreign country between now and end-2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current absence of imminent military action and the difficulty of predicting which nation, if any, would be targeted during this two-year window. This baseline reflects both the specificity required (naming a single country rather than assessing strike likelihood generally) and the relatively constrained geopolitical environment relative to historical precedent.
Historical context matters considerably here. The US conducted strikes in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Somalia during the past two decades, often with limited warning and sometimes without formal declarations. However, the current administration's stated preference for diplomatic channels over unilateral military action, combined with the absence of acute flashpoint crises, explains the market's current pricing. The specificity of naming a single country ex-ante creates a coordination problem: even if strikes occur, they may target multiple nations, rendering any single-country position incorrect.
Traders should monitor developments in Iran's nuclear programme, given recurring tensions over enrichment milestones and potential Israeli-US coordination scenarios. North Korean weapons tests, escalation in the Taiwan Strait, and any major terrorist attack attributed to state actors would shift probabilities materially. Congressional authorisation debates and Pentagon strategic reviews scheduled through 2026 may also signal shifting military posture. Recent reporting from Reuters and the Financial Times on administration defence priorities will shape how market participants assess tail-risk scenarios.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Next Country US Strikes" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5.3M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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