Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas. If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Michael Soetaert | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sharice Davids | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Damon Anderson | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jason Hart | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Erik Murray | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
Kansas will hold a U.S. Senate election in 2026, with the Democratic primary determining the party's nominee to challenge the Republican incumbent. The current 4% implied probability reflects the structural disadvantage Democrats face in a reliably Republican state. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and the party's registration advantage in the state remains negligible. The Polymarket order book is pricing in the expectation that either no competitive Democratic primary materialises or that the eventual nominee will be a relatively unknown candidate with minimal national profile.
Historical context shows Kansas Democratic Senate candidates consistently underperform the national party. In 2020, Barbara Bollier, the party's strongest recent nominee, secured only 41% of the vote against Republican Roger Marshall. The state's political lean has only shifted further rightward since then. Comparable 2026 Senate races in deep-red states—such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Idaho—show Democratic primary markets trading at similar low probabilities, suggesting the 4% figure reflects rational pricing for a party facing demographic and structural headwinds in rural-dominated states.
Traders should monitor whether prominent Kansas Democrats announce candidacy before the filing deadline, typically in spring 2026. Any significant endorsements from national Democratic figures or unexpected fundraising activity could shift the probability. The Kansas Democratic Party's own candidate recruitment efforts will be a key signal; minimal investment in the race would reinforce the current low probability. Local Kansas media coverage of primary filings and early polling, should it emerge, will provide concrete data points for market reassessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$127K in lifetime turnover and $72K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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