Trade: Guam Governor Republican Primary Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $30K
- Total Volume
- $25K
- 24h Volume
- $6
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Vicente Ada | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| Marcel Camacho | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Douglas Moylan | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate J | — | |
Market context
Guam will hold a Republican primary election for governor on 1 August 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Republican primary winner at 74%, implying roughly a 26% probability that no such primary occurs or that the market resolves to "Other" under the stated conditions. This pricing reflects the baseline expectation that the Guam Republican Party will proceed with its scheduled primary process, though political party dynamics in smaller jurisdictions can shift unexpectedly.
Guam's Republican primary has historically featured competitive races with multiple candidates. The 2022 gubernatorial general election saw Democrat Lourdes Leon Guerrero retain the governorship, whilst the Republican primary that year involved several contenders. The current 74% probability suggests traders view a functioning primary as highly likely but acknowledge material uncertainty around whether the party maintains its organisational capacity and candidate recruitment through 2026, or whether unforeseen circumstances alter the electoral calendar.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidate announcements from the Guam Republican Party, any changes to the territorial electoral code, and statements from party leadership regarding primary procedures. The Guam Election Commission typically publishes candidate filing deadlines and primary schedules several months in advance. Traders should monitor announcements from the Guam Republican Party and local news outlets covering territorial politics, particularly any indication of candidate withdrawals, party consolidation, or procedural changes that might affect whether a contested primary materialises as scheduled.
Wikipedia Context
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List of governors of GuamThe governor of Guam is the head of government of Guam and the commander-in-chief of the Guam National Guard, whose responsibilities also include making the annual State of the Island addresses to the Guam Legislature, submitting the budget, and ensuring that Guam's public laws are enforced. The position was created in 1968, through the passage of the Guam E
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Adelup PointAdelup Point is a limestone promontory in Hagåtña, Guam that extends into the Philippine Sea and separates Asan Bay from Hagåtña Bay. It has been the site of the Ricardo J. Bordallo Governor's Complex since 1990. Adelup is therefore a metonym for the Office of the Governor of Guam.
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List of first openly LGBTQ politicians in the United States
This is a list of the first openly LGBTQ people to have held political office in the United States. No openly LGBTQ person has served as President, Vice President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, or as a justice on the Supreme Court. However, all 50 states have elected openly LGBTQ people to political office in some capacity, and 49 states have el
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Government of Guam
The Government of Guam (GovGuam) is a presidential representative democratic system, whereby the president is the head of state and the governor is head of government, and of a multi-party system. Guam is an organized, unincorporated territory of the United States with policy relations between Guam and the US under the jurisdiction of the Office of Insular A
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Guam Governor Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$25K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Guam Governor Republican Primary Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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