Trade: AK-AL House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Total Volume
- $6K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 79% YES | 22% NO |
| E | — | |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
Market context
Alaska's At-Large House district will elect a representative in the November 2026 midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Republican victory at 79%, reflecting confidence in GOP retention of the seat. This district has voted Republican in recent cycles, with Don Young holding the seat for decades before his death in 2022, followed by Republican Mary Peltola's narrow loss to Democrat Mary Peltola in a special election that same year. The subsequent general election in 2022 saw Peltola prevail again, establishing her as the incumbent heading into 2026.
The 79% probability reflects the district's historical Republican lean and the structural advantages of incumbency, though Alaska's unique ranked-choice voting system introduces volatility compared to traditional two-party contests. Peltola's 2022 victories came through vote-splitting dynamics rather than majority support, a factor traders should weigh against demographic shifts and potential candidate quality variations. The district's composition—heavily rural and conservative outside Anchorage—traditionally favours Republican performance in midterm environments when presidential turnout drops.
Key developments to monitor include candidate announcements expected through 2025 and early 2026, primary dynamics within both parties, and any shifts in national Republican or Democratic campaign resource allocation to Alaska. Recent polling and fundraising data will provide concrete signals about challenger viability. The ranked-choice mechanism means third-party or independent candidacies could materially affect final outcomes, distinguishing this race from most other House contests.
Wikipedia Context
-
Akeal Hosein
Akeal Jerome Hosein is a Trinidadian cricketer who represents the West Indies cricket team. He plays for Chennai Super Kings in the Indian Premier League and Trinbago Knight Riders in the Caribbean Premier League.
-
Adelbert AlthouseAdelbert Althouse was a United States Navy Captain who served as the 27th and 29th Naval Governor of Guam. Prior to his Governorship, he served on ships in the Navy and participated in both the Spanish–American War and World War I. He earned the Navy Cross for his actions commanding USS Brooklyn and serving as Chief of Staff for the Commander and Chief of th
-
AMA House, SydneyAMA House, Sydney or the Australian Medical Association House, Sydney is a heritage-listed former medical office and library and now commercial offices located at 135–137 Macquarie Street in the Sydney central business district, in the City of Sydney local government area of New South Wales, Australia. It was designed by Fowell & McConnel and built from 1929
-
AMA House, BrisbaneAMA House is a heritage-listed villa at 1/88 L'Estrange Terrace, Kelvin Grove, City of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. It was built from c. 1914 to c. 1916. It is also known as AMA House and Hunstanton. It was added to the Queensland Heritage Register on 4 July 1995.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AK-AL House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$6K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AK-AL House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: