Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Person A | — | |
| Person B | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person H | — | |
| Person I | — | |
| Democrat | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Republican | 93% YES | 7% NO |
West Virginia will hold a U.S. Senate election in November 2026 to determine who represents the state for a six-year term beginning in January 2027. The seat is currently held by Democrat Joe Manchin, who announced in November 2024 that he would not seek re-election, effectively opening the race. This creates an unusually fluid competitive environment in a state that has trended Republican in recent cycles, with no incumbent protection for either party.
West Virginia's electoral trajectory provides essential context. The state voted for Donald Trump by 39 percentage points in 2020 and has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2016. However, Manchin won re-election in 2018 despite Trump's 42-point margin in the state, demonstrating that candidate-specific factors and personal brand can override partisan headwinds. The 2024 Senate map saw Republicans gain seats nationally, though West Virginia's specific dynamics remain distinct from broader trends. Early candidate recruitment and fundraising patterns will signal whether Democrats view the seat as defensible or concede resources elsewhere.
Key catalysts include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate through 2025, and primary election scheduling. The Republican primary will likely determine the general election outcome given demographic shifts, making GOP candidate emergence and positioning critical to watch. Fundraising disclosures, polling releases, and any shifts in national political momentum closer to 2026 will inform market repricing. The absence of an incumbent removes a stabilising factor that typically anchors expectations in open-seat races.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "West Virginia Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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