Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Option B | — | |
| Option D | — | |
| Option F | — | |
| Option H | — | |
| Option J | — | |
| Democrat | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Option A | — | |
South Dakota will hold its gubernatorial election on 5 November 2026, with the winner taking office in January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability for a YES resolution, indicating strong market conviction that a candidate will be declared winner by the settlement deadline. This probability is being formed through live trading on the platform's order book, where participants are pricing in expectations based on available information about candidate viability and electoral dynamics.
Republican Governor Kristi Noem's departure to serve as Secretary of Homeland Security under the Trump administration creates an open-seat race, a scenario that historically shifts South Dakota's electoral dynamics. The state has voted Republican in statewide races consistently, with the last Democratic gubernatorial victory occurring in 1986. However, open seats introduce greater uncertainty than incumbent-defence races. The 93% probability reflects confidence that a clear winner will emerge rather than a prediction of which party will prevail; the market is pricing in the likelihood of a decisive outcome in a state with straightforward electoral mechanics and reliable vote-counting procedures.
Key catalysts for traders include the formal candidate announcements from both major parties, expected through 2025 and early 2026, which will clarify the field and allow assessment of individual candidate strength. The Republican primary, should multiple candidates emerge, could reshape market expectations if an unexpected frontrunner gains traction. Polling data released closer to November 2026 will provide concrete signals about competitive positioning. The resolution hinges on Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling a winner, outcomes that depend on vote margins and the absence of extraordinary circumstances triggering extended recounts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "South Dakota Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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