Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cori Bush | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate J | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
| Candidate O | — | |
Missouri's 1st congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 4 August 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 32% probability that a Democratic nominee will be formally announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline, with traders pricing in meaningful uncertainty around whether the party will field a competitive candidate in this Republican-leaning district. The settlement hinges on official Democrat sources confirming a nominee; any subsequent replacement before the general election does not alter the resolution.
Historical context for Missouri's 1st district shows it has trended Republican in recent cycles, though Democratic participation in primaries varies considerably based on national political momentum and local recruitment efforts. The 2022 midterms saw Democratic candidates compete across most House districts regardless of electoral viability, suggesting baseline organisational capacity exists. However, districts rated as heavily Republican often experience lower primary turnout and candidate recruitment challenges, which could affect whether a nominee emerges by the deadline.
Traders should monitor Democratic National Committee recruitment announcements and candidate filing deadlines in Missouri, typically occurring in the spring of 2026. Local Missouri Democratic Party communications regarding the district will signal organisational commitment. The timing of any incumbent Republican announcement or unexpected retirements could influence whether Democrats prioritise resources in MO-01. National political conditions in 2026, including midterm dynamics and fundraising environment, will shape whether the party views the seat as worth contesting.
Moba is a town located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Tanganyika Province. It is the administrative center of Moba Territory.
Democracy indices / rankings are quantitative and comparative measurements of the state of democracy for different countries according to various definitions and concepts of democracy, to allow for their assessment, and development.
Mono is an indigenous language spoken by about 65,000 people in the northwestern corner of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It is one of the Banda languages, a subbranch of the Ubangian branch of the Niger–Congo languages. It has five dialects: Bili, Bubanda, Mpaka, Galaba, and Kaga.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $77 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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