Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Republican Party | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Other | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| A | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Iowa's 1st congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 66% probability that a Republican candidate will win the seat, reflecting market participants' assessment of the district's partisan lean and incumbent positioning. This probability is formed through continuous trading activity, with the spread between bid and ask prices narrowing as election day approaches and new information emerges.
Iowa-01 has demonstrated consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, though the district's composition and voter behaviour warrant examination against comparable competitive seats. The district voted for Donald Trump by approximately 8 percentage points in 2020, and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks secured the seat in 2022 with a narrow margin in what was then a more competitive environment. Historical patterns suggest districts with this Trump margin typically favour Republican candidates in midterm elections, particularly when an incumbent is seeking re-election, though national political conditions and candidate quality substantially influence outcomes.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary outcomes in both parties through 2025 and early 2026, as well as any shifts in national congressional approval ratings and economic conditions that typically drive midterm performance. Miller-Meeks's voting record and constituent service record will likely feature prominently in Democratic recruitment and messaging efforts. Redistricting effects and any changes to the district's demographic composition since 2020 could alter the underlying fundamentals that currently support the implied probability.
"I Am House" is a song recorded, co-written, and produced by American singer Crystal Waters featuring the American production duo Sted-e & Hybrid Heights. The House-themed single reached number one on Billboard's Dance Club Songs chart in its April 21, 2018 issue, giving Waters her twelfth number one, as well as the third for the duo, each with previous coll
Ian James Houseman is an English first-class cricketer, who played five matches for Yorkshire County Cricket Club between 1989 and 1991.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IA-01 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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