Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping meets with Cheng Li-wun by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Xi Jinping and Cheng Li-wun are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Xi Jinping, China's paramount leader, has not publicly met with Cheng Li-wun as of early 2025. Cheng Li-wun is a Taiwanese businessman and political figure with historical ties to cross-strait relations. The market asks whether a direct, in-person interaction between these two individuals will occur within the next 18 months, with the resolution window closing on 30 June 2026. The definition requires substantive personal engagement—handshakes, conversation, or exchange of words—rather than mere proximity at the same venue.
The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either exceptionally high confidence in an imminent meeting or potential ambiguity in market participants' understanding of Cheng Li-wun's current status and accessibility to Xi Jinping. Historical precedent suggests Xi meets with select Taiwanese business figures during cross-strait engagement periods, though such meetings typically occur through formal diplomatic channels and are announced in advance. The absence of recent news coverage regarding scheduled meetings between these specific individuals warrants caution about the extreme probability assessment.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding cross-strait business delegations, APEC summits, or other multilateral forums where both figures might be present. Changes in Taiwan's political leadership or shifts in Beijing's engagement strategy could alter meeting likelihood. The resolution will depend on credible reporting from official sources or major news outlets confirming direct interaction between Xi and Cheng Li-wun before the June 2026 deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.2M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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