Trade: Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $23K
- Total Volume
- $1.2M
- 24h Volume
- $139
- Open Interest
- $41K
Market outcomes
| June 30, 2026 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
A formal declaration of war by the United States Congress against Venezuela remains an extraordinarily low-probability event, reflected in the 1% implied probability currently priced on Polymarket's order book. Such a declaration would require passage through both chambers of Congress and presidential signature, representing a constitutionally distinct action from military authorisation resolutions or executive military operations. The specificity of the timeframe—a two-week window in late December 2025—further constrains the probability space, as Congress would need to prioritise such a declaration amid year-end legislative schedules and holiday recesses.
Historical precedent suggests formal declarations of war have become exceptionally rare in American politics. The last formal declaration against a nation-state occurred in 1942 during the Second World War; subsequent military engagements, including those in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, proceeded through authorisation resolutions rather than declarations. US-Venezuela relations have involved sanctions, diplomatic tensions, and support for opposition figures, but no military escalation approaching the threshold that would trigger congressional war declaration votes. The Biden administration's posture toward Venezuela has emphasised diplomatic pressure and sanctions rather than military confrontation.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments in US-Venezuela diplomatic incidents, any major security events affecting American interests in the region, and congressional scheduling announcements for December 2025. Recent geopolitical shifts in Latin America and any significant escalation in regional tensions could alter baseline probabilities, though the constitutional and political barriers to formal war declarations remain structurally formidable.
Wikipedia Context
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Unofficially YoursUnofficially Yours is a 2012 Filipino romantic film directed by Cathy Garcia-Molina, starring John Lloyd Cruz and Angel Locsin with Edgar Mortiz, Tetchie Agbayani and Edgar Allan Guzman as Kelvin. It was produced and released by Star Cinema. The film was released domestically on February 15, 2012. It was third highest grossing Filipino film of 2012.
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Official Register of the United StatesThe Official Register of the United States was a regular publication which listed the names and roles of federal employees. It was first published in 1816 by the Department of State, and continued to be issued until 1959. With the exception of the missing years 1923 and 1935, the Register was published biennially until 1925. After that, the frequency increas
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Official number
Official numbers are ship identifier numbers assigned to merchant ships by their country of registration. Each country developed its own official numbering system, some on a national and some on a port-by-port basis, and the formats have sometimes changed over time. As an internationally recognized ship identifier, national official numbers have largely been
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Fan translationFan translation is the unofficial translation of various forms of written or multimedia products made by fans, often into a language in which an official translated version is not yet available. Generally, fans do not have formal training as translators but they volunteer to participate in translation projects based on interest in a specific audiovisual genr
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.2M in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $139 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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