Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A no-confidence motion against the government of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan is expected to be voted upon in the Romanian parliament on May 5, 2026 (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/romanias-two-largest-parties-call-no-confidence-vote-pro-european-government-2026-04-28/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the no-confidence motion against the Romanian government submitted on April 28, 2026 passes in the Romanian Parliament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the referenced motion of no confidence against the Romanian government is withdrawn, dismissed, or otherwise removed from consideration, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Romania No-Confidence vote passes? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Romania's parliament is scheduled to vote on a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's government on 5 May 2026. The motion was submitted on 28 April by Romania's two largest parties, signalling a coordinated effort to remove the administration. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability of passage, as displayed across Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders assess passage as near-certain given the coalition backing the motion.
Romanian governments face no-confidence votes periodically, though successful passage remains relatively uncommon without substantial parliamentary fragmentation. The last successful no-confidence vote occurred in 2019 against Viorica Dăncilă's government, which fell with 238 votes in favour. Bolojan's government would require 233 votes to be removed under current parliamentary composition. The involvement of Romania's largest parties indicates sufficient numbers are likely available, though defections or procedural delays could alter outcomes. Historical precedent suggests that when major parties unite on such motions, passage typically follows.
Traders should monitor developments between now and the vote regarding potential withdrawals, last-minute negotiations, or shifts in party discipline. The Reuters reporting from 28 April confirmed the motion's submission and the parties' commitment, establishing the procedural foundation. Any announcements from Bolojan's coalition partners regarding support or defection would materially affect the probability, as would procedural challenges or scheduling changes. The compressed timeline between submission and vote limits opportunities for significant political manoeuvring.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Romania No-Confidence vote passes?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$63K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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