Trade: Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $25K
- Total Volume
- $60K
- 24h Volume
- $4K
- Open Interest
- $21K
Market outcomes
| May 16 | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| June 30 | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| May 31 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| May 15 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Market context
Jerome Powell's tenure as Federal Reserve Chair extends through June 2026, when his current term concludes. The 91% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects expectations that Powell will depart before that date—either through voluntary resignation, removal, or circumstances forcing his departure. This high probability sits notably above historical baseline rates for Fed Chair transitions, suggesting market participants are pricing in material departure risk within the next eighteen months.
Precedent offers limited guidance. Fed Chairs have rarely departed mid-term; Paul Volcker served through his full term despite political pressure, whilst Alan Greenspan completed his tenure despite market turbulence. Arthur Burns and G. William Miller both served their full terms despite economic challenges. The only comparable recent case involved a Chair stepping down voluntarily—though this remains uncommon. The current probability reflects either expectations of unprecedented political intervention or assessment that Powell himself may choose exit given sustained policy tensions.
Traders should monitor several catalysts. Statements from incoming administration officials regarding Fed leadership will carry immediate weight, particularly any explicit calls for Powell's removal or replacement. Congressional testimony and inflation data releases through late 2025 will shape the political environment around monetary policy. Market volatility and economic deterioration could accelerate departure timelines. The resolution criteria specify actual cessation of the Chair role—not announcements or successor confirmations—meaning Powell would need to physically vacate the position rather than merely announce intentions.
Wikipedia Context
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Jerome PowellJerome Hayden "Jay" Powell is an American central banker and attorney who has been the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve since 2018. He was previously both a lawyer and investment banker in the private sector before entering public service.
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Jeremy PowellJeremy Robert Powell is an American former professional baseball player. He is currently the pitching coach for the AAA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. He played for the Montreal Expos in Major League Baseball (MLB).
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Herbert Charles PollittHerbert Charles Pollitt, also known as Jerome Pollitt, was a female impersonator who performed as Diane de Rougy. He became notorious as a Cambridge undergraduate due to his taste for Decadent art and literature, and was immortalised as the eponymous hero of an E. F. Benson novel in 1896. He became a very close friend of the artist Aubrey Beardsley, and had
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$60K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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