Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Illinois's 5th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The district, which encompasses parts of Chicago and Cook County, has been a reliably Democratic seat for decades. The current implied probability of 6% reflects the order book on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a substantial Republican advantage relative to historical performance in IL-05, though the district's Democratic lean remains the dominant factor in current pricing.
IL-05 has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2000, with margins typically exceeding 20 percentage points. The seat has been held by Democrats continuously since 1993. Comparable safely Democratic urban districts have occasionally flipped during wave elections—such as in 2022 when some suburban seats shifted—but IL-05's Chicago base and demographic composition place it among the more resilient Democratic holds. The 6% probability suggests traders anticipate either an exceptional Republican wave in 2026 or a significant local disruption to current political alignment.
Key variables for traders to monitor include candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in 2025, and broader midterm fundamentals including presidential approval ratings and economic conditions heading into 2026. The district's composition and turnout patterns in 2024 will establish the baseline for 2026 expectations. Any significant redistricting changes, though unlikely given Illinois's current map, would materially alter the race dynamics. National House polling and Cook Political Report ratings will provide regular benchmarks for assessing whether current pricing reflects genuine competitive conditions or represents mispricing relative to historical district performance.
The Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives is seventh in the line of succession to the office of Governor of Illinois.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IL-05 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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