Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Colorado. If no 2026 Colorado Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| John Hickenlooper | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| Brashad Hasley | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Michael Scanlon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Julie Gonzales | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
Colorado will hold a Democratic primary election in 2026 to select its nominee for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John Hickenlooper. The primary winner will face the Republican nominee in the general election. The 85% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong consensus that a Democratic primary will occur as scheduled, with no expectation of candidate withdrawal or party procedural changes that would prevent the contest from taking place.
Colorado's Democratic primary has consistently drawn multiple candidates in recent cycles. In 2020, the primary featured four serious contenders before John Hickenlooper secured the nomination. The state's Democratic electorate is sufficiently large and engaged to sustain competitive primaries. The current 85% probability reflects the baseline assumption that standard electoral machinery will function—that candidates will file, campaigns will proceed, and voters will participate in the scheduled June primary.
Key catalysts for traders include candidate announcements, which typically begin in late 2025 or early 2026, and any unexpected withdrawals or party interventions. The Colorado Democratic Party's official primary schedule and filing deadlines, typically set in early 2026, will clarify procedural requirements. Major shifts in national Democratic strategy or Colorado-specific political developments—such as unexpected retirements or health issues affecting potential candidates—could alter the probability. The settlement window closes 30 June 2026, allowing resolution based on official party results or credible reporting consensus shortly after the primary vote.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28K in lifetime turnover and $48K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $23 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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