Trade: PA-03 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $38K
- Total Volume
- $14K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $875
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Market context
Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 94% probability that the winner will be either a Democrat or Republican, with minimal likelihood of an independent or third-party candidate prevailing. This confidence reflects the district's historical voting patterns and structural factors that have consistently favoured the two major parties in this seat.
PA-03 has voted reliably within the two-party framework across recent election cycles. The district's composition—spanning parts of Bucks and Montgomery counties—has produced straightforward partisan contests without significant independent or third-party breakthroughs. Comparable suburban Pennsylvania districts have similarly shown 90%+ probabilities for major-party winners in midterm prediction markets, particularly when measured this far in advance of the election.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary schedules throughout 2025 and into 2026, as these will clarify the field and potentially shift probability if an unusually strong independent candidate emerges. Redistricting effects from the 2020 census remain settled, removing that source of uncertainty. National political momentum, particularly shifts in suburban voting behaviour or local demographic changes, could influence the margin between parties but is unlikely to produce a non-major-party winner given the district's recent electoral history.
Wikipedia Context
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David Parkhouse
David Cain Parkhouse is a Northern Irish footballer who plays for NIFL Championship side H&W Welders. He has previously played for Ballymena United, Cliftonville, Sheffield United, Boston United, Tamworth, Derry City, Stevenage and Hartlepool United.
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Park House, SandringhamPark House stands on the Sandringham estate in North Norfolk, England. It was built by Edward, Prince of Wales as a home for General Sir William Knollys, who had been appointed comptroller of the prince's household in 1862. In the mid-20th century, the house was let, and in the 1960s was rented by John Spencer, Viscount Althorp. On 1 July 1961 his fourth chi
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Pair-house
A pair-house is a three-room house found in the US built in the 19th century by Scandinavian immigrants as an adaptation of common houses from their homeland. Commonly found in the US state of Utah, pair-houses are historically significant as being representative of ethnic diversity in an area and time that favored uniformity among followers of the Church o
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Gilbert ParkhouseWilliam Gilbert Anthony Parkhouse was a Welsh cricketer who played in seven Tests for England in 1950, 1950–51 and 1959.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "PA-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$14K in lifetime turnover and $38K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "PA-03 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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