Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Trump declares election interference national emergency? | 19% YES | 82% NO |
The question centres on whether President Trump will invoke the National Emergencies Act to formally declare a national emergency specifically addressing election interference or election processes by the end of 2026. Such a declaration would need to include explicit statutory language under 50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq. and direct reference to electoral interference. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 18% probability, reflecting trader assessment that this remains a low-likelihood event despite Trump's historical focus on election integrity claims.
Trump has previously declared national emergencies—most notably for border security in February 2019—demonstrating willingness to use the mechanism for politically salient issues. However, election interference declarations present distinct legal and political terrain. Prior administrations have not issued such declarations, and the statutory framework contemplates emergencies as sudden, extraordinary threats requiring immediate action. Election interference claims, whilst prominent in Trump's rhetoric, have typically been pursued through litigation, congressional inquiry, and executive orders rather than emergency declarations. This historical pattern anchors the relatively modest implied probability.
Traders should monitor several potential catalysts through 2026: major cybersecurity incidents affecting election infrastructure, significant foreign interference findings from intelligence agencies, and Trump's rhetorical escalation regarding electoral threats. The 2024 election cycle and any subsequent investigations into interference allegations could shift trader positioning. Additionally, congressional activity on election security legislation and any major breaches of voting systems would provide concrete events that might prompt emergency declaration consideration. The settlement window extends through year-end 2026, capturing the full window for such action.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump declares election interference national emergency?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$156K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $63 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 19%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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