Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 15, 2026, than on May 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 8, 2026, than on May 15, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | 39% YES | 62% NO |
Trump's approval rating will be assessed across a single week in May 2026, with the market resolving based on whether the Silver Bulletin metric moves upward or remains flat or declines. The 53% implied probability on Polymarket's order book currently reflects a slight lean towards approval gains, though the tight pricing suggests genuine uncertainty about weekly directional movement. Silver Bulletin aggregates multiple polling sources into a composite approval measure, making single-week shifts dependent on both new survey releases and methodological timing rather than discrete political events.
Weekly approval movements historically cluster around ±2 percentage points for sitting presidents, with volatility driven by news cycles, legislative outcomes, or economic data releases. Trump's approval has shown sensitivity to geopolitical developments, inflation reports, and congressional activity. The May 8–15 window falls outside major scheduled economic announcements (jobs reports typically release on the first Friday of each month), meaning movement would likely stem from unscheduled political developments or accumulated sentiment shifts across polling firms' release schedules.
Traders should monitor whether significant legislative votes, court decisions, or international incidents occur during the settlement week, as these historically correlate with measurable approval shifts. The Silver Bulletin's reliance on multiple pollsters means the final readings depend on which firms publish data between May 8 and 15; sparse polling activity could produce minimal movement regardless of underlying sentiment. The current order book pricing reflects this data dependency—neither direction commands strong conviction given the compressed timeframe and inherent volatility of weekly polling aggregates.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump approval Up or Down this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$195 in lifetime turnover and $573 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $23 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 39%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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