Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
New Jersey's 8th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in November 2026. The seat is currently held by Democrat Rob Menendez, who won a special election in 2023 following his father's resignation. The district spans parts of Hudson County and includes Jersey City, Union City, and surrounding areas—traditionally Democratic territory where the party has held the seat since 2013. The 6% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial structural disadvantage facing any Republican challenger in this heavily Democratic-leaning district.
Historical performance provides context for reading this probability. NJ-08 voted for Joe Biden by approximately 14 percentage points in 2020, and Democratic candidates have consistently outperformed national trends here. The 2022 midterm saw Democrat Menendez win the special election with 71% of the vote against Republican John Pico. Similar Democratic-held urban districts with comparable partisan lean have occasionally flipped during wave elections, but such outcomes remain statistical outliers rather than baseline expectations.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through 2025 and early 2026, particularly whether Menendez seeks re-election or whether unexpected retirements reshape the race dynamics. Broader national political conditions—congressional approval ratings, inflation data, and presidential approval—will influence the district's receptiveness to Republican messaging. Any significant local corruption allegations or internal Democratic divisions could alter the trajectory, though the district's demographic composition and recent voting patterns suggest the Democratic candidate enters as a substantial favourite regardless of candidate quality.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NJ-08 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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