Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
New Jersey's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Democratic victory at 74%, reflecting expectations that the seat remains competitive but leans toward the incumbent party. The district, which encompasses parts of South Jersey including Atlantic County and Cape May County, has shifted in partisan lean over recent cycles, making the 2026 outcome dependent on both national midterm dynamics and local candidate strength.
Historical context suggests the 74% Democratic probability aligns with recent performance in the district. New Jersey's 2nd has trended Democratic since 2018, though it remains within the range of districts that could flip in a strong Republican midterm environment. The 2022 midterms saw Democrats perform better than historical midterm patterns would predict, and the district's composition—with growing suburban areas and coastal communities—has favoured Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Comparable swing districts nationally have shown volatility, but the 74% figure reflects a meaningful but not insurmountable Democratic advantage.
Key catalysts for traders include candidate announcements expected through 2025 and early 2026, which will clarify whether the incumbent seeks re-election and what quality challengers emerge. National economic conditions and approval ratings heading into 2026 will shape the broader midterm environment. New Jersey's primary elections, typically held in June, will determine final ballot matchups. Local redistricting effects remain settled following the 2020 census, removing that source of uncertainty from the current pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NJ-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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