Resolution criteria on PolyGram: On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| October 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| November 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
Sébastien Lecornu's tenure as French Prime Minister has already proven unstable. Appointed on 9 September 2024, he resigned after just four weeks on 6 October following fierce parliamentary opposition to his cabinet composition. President Macron reappointed him on 10 October with a mandate to form a new government. The market settles "Yes" if Lecornu leaves office at any point between his reappointment and 31 December 2025. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence in his survival through this window, though French prime ministerial tenures have grown notably precarious since Macron's 2017 election.
French governments face structural fragmentation in the current National Assembly. No single bloc commands a majority following the 2024 legislative elections, forcing prime ministers to navigate competing demands from the centre-right Republicans, the Socialist Party, and other factions whilst avoiding triggering a no-confidence motion. Édouard Philippe lasted two years under similar conditions; Élisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal each served under a year. Lecornu's previous resignation demonstrates his vulnerability to parliamentary pressure and cabinet-building difficulties.
Key catalysts include parliamentary votes on government confidence, budgetary negotiations scheduled for late 2024 and 2025, and any significant policy defeats. The government's ability to pass spending legislation without triggering article 49.3 constitutional procedures—which can provoke no-confidence votes—will test Lecornu's political durability. Announcements of ministerial departures or public splits within the coalition would signal instability ahead of potential resignation or dismissal.
Patrice Lecornu was a French professional footballer who played as a striker. He died on 3 October 2023, at the age of 65.
Le Cornu is a surname originally of French origin, and in particular from Calvados and the area around Bayeux. It has a number of variants, including 'Cornu', 'Lecornue', 'Lecornu' and 'Cornut'. Tosti comments that it was 'a name that some bearers found difficult to wear as it immediately and incontrovertibly evoked a horned person, or a cuckold'. However, t
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$321K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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