Trade: LA Mayoral Election: First Round Second Place?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Karen Bass | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Rick Caruso | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Gina Viola | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Spencer Pratt | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Austin Beutner | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Lindsey Horvath | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Monica Rodriguez | 22% YES | 78% NO |
Market context
Los Angeles will hold its mayoral election on 2 June 2026, with a runoff scheduled for 3 November should no candidate secure an outright majority. This market settles on whichever candidate finishes second in the first round, determined by valid vote count with alphabetical tiebreaking. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 41% probability that a specific named candidate will achieve that second-place finish, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the field's composition and relative strength.
Historical precedent suggests second-place finishes in Los Angeles municipal elections are difficult to predict when multiple credible candidates compete. The 2022 mayoral race saw Rick Caruso and Karen Bass advance to a runoff after finishing first and second respectively, though both had substantially higher name recognition and funding than typical challengers. The current 41% probability reflects the market's assessment that the named candidate faces meaningful competition from other potential contenders, with no consensus forming around a clear runner-up position at this stage.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and campaign infrastructure development through late 2025 and early 2026, particularly regarding endorsements from city council members and labour organisations that historically shape Los Angeles electoral dynamics. Fundraising disclosures and polling releases, typically accelerating in the six months before the election, will provide concrete data on candidate viability. The composition of the final ballot itself remains fluid, as candidates must gather sufficient signatures and meet registration deadlines, creating potential for late-stage field changes that could substantially alter second-place probabilities.
Wikipedia Context
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La MoralejaLa Moraleja is an affluent residential district of Alcobendas municipality in northern Community of Madrid, Spain, in the Madrid metropolitan area; located next to El Soto and El Encinar de los Reyes. The Spanish version of Greenwich, it is home to some of Spain's wealthiest people with sprawling mansions and several luxury golf courses such as La Moraleja G
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La Mayordomía
La Mayordomía is a Canadian short documentary film, directed by Martin Edralin and released in 2025. The film documents a Mexican ritual in which families are entrusted with the care of various figurines of Jesus Christ for a year.
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List of mayors of Los AngelesThe mayor of Los Angeles is the chief executive of the Government of Los Angeles as set in the city charter. The current officeholder, the 43rd in the sequence of regular mayors, is Karen Bass, a member of the Democratic Party.
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Lamar AlexanderAndrew Lamar Alexander Jr. is an American politician, academic administrator, and attorney who served as a U.S. senator from Tennessee from 2003 to 2021. A member of the Republican Party, he was previously the 45th governor of Tennessee from 1979 to 1987 and the 5th United States Secretary of Education under President George H. W. Bush, serving from 1991 to
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LA Mayoral Election: First Round Second Place?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LA Mayoral Election: First Round Second Place?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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