Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ralph Alvarado | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Gavin Solomon | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Person C | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person K | — | |
| Person O | — | |
| Ryan Dotson | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
Kentucky's 6th congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 19 May 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability that a Republican nominee will be announced, suggesting traders assess the primary as virtually certain to proceed and produce a candidate. This probability formation reflects the baseline expectation that the Republican Party will field a candidate in a district it has consistently held; KY-06 has been solidly Republican in recent cycles, making the nomination process a formality rather than a competitive uncertainty.
Historical precedent supports the high confidence in nomination completion. Across U.S. House primaries, the failure to produce a nominee by the general election remains exceptionally rare, typically occurring only in cases of extraordinary circumstances such as death or severe legal disqualification of all candidates. The 2% tail risk priced into the market likely reflects edge cases where no candidate files or all candidates withdraw before the May deadline, scenarios with minimal historical frequency in established Republican districts.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and filing deadlines leading into spring 2026, as well as any unexpected withdrawals or eligibility challenges. The resolution mechanism specifies that replacement of the nominee after selection does not alter the market outcome, meaning the critical event is nomination completion by the May primary date rather than the eventual general election result. No recent developments in KY-06 have suggested atypical primary dynamics.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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