Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Charlie McClintock | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person B | — | |
| Person D | — | |
| Person F | — | |
| Person H | — | |
| Person J | — | |
| Person L | — | |
Iowa's 2nd congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 2 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 2%, implying substantial uncertainty about which candidate will secure the nomination or whether the process will conclude by the resolution deadline of 3 November 2026.
Historical precedent suggests Republican primaries in Iowa's 2nd district typically resolve with a clear nominee well before the general election. The district has been represented by Republican Ashley Hinson since 2021, and primary contests in this seat have not previously faced nomination delays or failures to produce a candidate. However, the 2% probability reflects genuine structural risks: nomination disputes, candidate withdrawals, or procedural complications could theoretically prevent a consensus nominee from emerging by the November deadline, triggering resolution to "Other."
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and filing deadlines in the coming months, as Iowa's primary calendar and Republican Party procedures will determine the field. The Iowa Republican Party's official communications and the RNC's guidance on delegate allocation will shape candidate viability. Any significant shifts in the national political environment affecting Iowa's 2nd district—such as changes to the district's boundaries through redistricting or unexpected retirements—could alter the competitive landscape. The resolution mechanism's reliance on RNC consensus sources means formal party recognition of a nominee will be the decisive factor.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IA-02 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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