Trade: Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Market context

Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement on 9 October 2025, following months of conflict in Gaza. The market assesses whether either party will formally announce cancellation of this ceasefire before 31 October 2025. The current 0% implied probability reflects the Polymarket order book's assessment that formal cancellation announcements remain highly unlikely within this narrow timeframe, though the resolution criteria require explicit statements or consensus reporting that the ceasefire is no longer in effect—mere violations or accusations of breaches do not qualify.

Previous Israeli-Palestinian ceasefires offer instructive precedent. The 2008–2009 Gaza conflict ended with a ceasefire that held formally for years despite sporadic violations and tensions. The 2012 ceasefire similarly persisted as a nominal framework despite repeated incidents. These cases suggest that formal cancellation announcements are rarer than operational breakdowns; parties typically maintain nominal agreements whilst conducting limited operations, allowing deniability and preserving diplomatic optionality. This historical pattern underpins the market's current pricing.

Key catalysts centre on whether either party faces sufficient domestic or military pressure to formally withdraw within the next three weeks. Israeli government statements on ceasefire compliance, Hamas leadership announcements from Qatar or Gaza, and any major escalation requiring explicit termination rather than de facto abandonment will drive price movement. Reuters and official government statements from Tel Aviv and Hamas representatives remain primary sources for resolution-qualifying announcements. The settlement window's proximity to the initial agreement date means traders are essentially pricing the probability of immediate formal collapse rather than longer-term sustainability.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$4.0M in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for israel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $345 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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