Resolution criteria on PolyGram: On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| October 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| November 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| November 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 31 | — | |
| June 30 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement on 9 October 2025, following months of conflict in Gaza. The market assesses whether either party will formally announce cancellation of this ceasefire before 31 October 2025. The current 0% implied probability reflects the Polymarket order book's assessment that formal cancellation announcements remain highly unlikely within this narrow timeframe, though the resolution criteria require explicit statements or consensus reporting that the ceasefire is no longer in effect—mere violations or accusations of breaches do not qualify.
Previous Israeli-Palestinian ceasefires offer instructive precedent. The 2008–2009 Gaza conflict ended with a ceasefire that held formally for years despite sporadic violations and tensions. The 2012 ceasefire similarly persisted as a nominal framework despite repeated incidents. These cases suggest that formal cancellation announcements are rarer than operational breakdowns; parties typically maintain nominal agreements whilst conducting limited operations, allowing deniability and preserving diplomatic optionality. This historical pattern underpins the market's current pricing.
Key catalysts centre on whether either party faces sufficient domestic or military pressure to formally withdraw within the next three weeks. Israeli government statements on ceasefire compliance, Hamas leadership announcements from Qatar or Gaza, and any major escalation requiring explicit termination rather than de facto abandonment will drive price movement. Reuters and official government statements from Tel Aviv and Hamas representatives remain primary sources for resolution-qualifying announcements. The settlement window's proximity to the initial agreement date means traders are essentially pricing the probability of immediate formal collapse rather than longer-term sustainability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4.0M in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for israel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $239 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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