Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Head-to-head markets for the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Norris vs Russell | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Verstappen vs Hadjar | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Lindblad vs Lawson | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Norris | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Verstappen | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Piastri | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Russell | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Norris vs Verstappen | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix will take place on 31 May 2026 at the Circuit de Monaco in Monte Carlo. This head-to-head market settles based on the outcome of that race, with settlement occurring by 14 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, indicating substantial uncertainty between the two competitors in question. This even split suggests traders are pricing in comparable chances for each driver or team pairing, with no clear consensus emerging from recent order flow.
Monaco's historical significance as a street circuit with limited overtaking opportunities makes qualifying performance and car reliability disproportionately important. Past editions have shown that pole position converts to victory roughly 40–50% of the time, depending on safety car interventions and mechanical attrition. The 2025 season will provide crucial data on relative competitiveness between the paired competitors, particularly their performance on low-downforce, precision-demanding circuits where Monaco's characteristics are most closely mirrored.
Key catalysts for traders include the 2026 technical regulations finalisation, mid-season 2025 performance trends, and any driver or team changes announced before the race. Driver market movements—particularly transfers between top teams—could shift the probability substantially if one competitor gains a clear advantage in machinery or team resources. Weather forecasts closer to race day and pre-race practice sessions will also inform late-market adjustments, as Monaco's narrow margins mean setup and tyre strategy become decisive factors in the final hours before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Monaco Grand Prix: Head-to-Head" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $10 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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